KALSHI EDGE
Enter password to access
Invalid password
KALSHI EDGE
v4.1 · Weather Analyst
Bankroll
$250
Ready
Sort:
🎯 All Tail Contracts
Sorted by EV · Tap row to open city
📊
Tap a city card in Scanner
to open its deep dive

📊 Kalshi Not Connected

Kalshi API credentials not configured in worker. Add KALSHI_KEY_ID and KALSHI_PRIVATE_KEY secrets to your Cloudflare Worker.

Get API Keys →
Total P&L
--
weather bets
ROI
--
return on wagered
Win Rate
--
-- / -- bets
Brier Score
--
lower = better calibrated
📈 Cumulative P&L
📅 Today
Loading...
📊 Recent Days
Date Wins · Losses Net W/L
Loading...
🎯 Edge by Category
Tails
--
Ranges
--
Today
--
Tomorrow
--
Locked
--
Bias Adj
--
🎯 Model Calibration
--
Score
50-60% bets--
60-70% bets--
70-80% bets--
80%+ bets--
📋 Recent Weather Trades
Market Side Price P&L
Loading trades...
📡 Live Position Monitor
Open Positions
--
active contracts
Total at Risk
--
max loss
Est. P&L
--
model-based
Exit Signals
--
positions flagged
HOLD WATCH EXIT
Loading positions...
📊 Consistency Metrics
--
Win Days
--
Loss Days
--
Best Streak
--
Avg/Day
📅 P&L by Day
Date Wins · Losses Net W/L
Loading...
📅 Today vs Tomorrow
TODAY
P&L --
Win Rate --
Trades --
TOMORROW
P&L --
Win Rate --
Trades --
🏙️ Stats by City
City P&L Win% Trades
Loading...
🌡️ High vs Low Temp
HIGH TEMP
P&L --
Win Rate --
Trades --
LOW TEMP
P&L --
Win Rate --
Trades --
📋 Trade History
Loading...
ΘTHETA SCANNER
Buy underpriced contracts · Capture value as uncertainty resolves
Opportunities
--
Avg Θ
--
Δ Edge vs Market
Γ Price Sensitivity
Θ Time Decay
ν Model Spread
📐 Theta Strategy Rules ▾
✓ Buy YES/NO on contracts where model shows strong edge (>10%)
✓ Best on contracts priced under 20¢ or over 80¢ (strong lean)
✓ Target 12–48hr window (uncertainty resolves, price converges to $1)
✓ Post-peak locked contracts = highest confidence theta
✓ Spread across 10–20 positions to diversify gamma risk
✗ Avoid 40–60¢ contracts (gamma too high, coin flip)
✗ Cap at 2–3% bankroll per contract
✗ Exit if contract moves 15¢ against you
📊 Session Summary
Total Θ Capture
--
Avg Confidence
--
Max Risk
--
Portfolio Θ/hr
--
📐 Forecast Calibration —
Tracks how well each model has forecast each city's daily high. Bias is the average signed error (actual − forecast); positive means the model runs cool. MAE is the average absolute error. Inflation is the σ multiplier applied to ensemble spread to match realized RMSE. Corrections activate after 7+ paired samples per (city, model, lead-bucket).
Loading…
Bankroll
Kelly Fraction
Multiplier
0.25 = quarter Kelly (recommended)
Cities
Models
NWS
api.weather.gov
GFS
Open-Meteo hourly
Ensemble
Open-Meteo ensemble
Proxy: empty-darkness-c77b.98xmmn7hxd.workers.dev
Fees: taker=0.07·P·(1-P) maker=0.0175·P·(1-P) roundup¢